No. of Recommendations: 24
Mr. Buffett also said in his annual letter, which was published after the current administration took office, that he will continue to invest in US businesses and that the US is still the best place to invest or something to that effect. Are we saying he just said it, but doesn't really mean it?
I'm sure he means it. And he is probably right. But "probably" isn't "certainly". I think the chances have dropped, and I think the chances that he is wrong in a lose-so-much-that-your-lifestyle-changes-a-lot kind of way are now over 1%.
Consider: The stock markets in Germany went up, with squiggles, on a gigantic tear from 1847 to 1916, and for good reason. In many ways its economy crushed the rest of the world, and there was nowhere to go but up. It was a sure thing. Someone could be 90 years old just before the first war and conclude precisely what Mr Buffett has concluded, with equally good historical evidence, and just as good a history as an investor. I am emphatically not saying the same scenario will play out, I'm merely casting doubt on engineer's induction: the notion that something will keep happening purely because it has done so for a long time. In any complex system, sometimes there are regime changes.
Jim
