Said asked: How then can history tell that the end is reached right now, at that point X?

Pinpointing the exact day, of course, is not possible. But putting the probabilities in favor of a certain outcome, is very doable. In fact, it is exactly the total focus of my research. On December 1st, 2021 the Forbes List was released: www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2021/12/01/heres-what-wall-streets-biggest-banks-predict-for-stocks-in-2022-and-what-to-watch-for/

These were Wall Street's predictions, and at the bottom what my perspective article stated, which was released on 1/1/2022.

2022 Wall Street Predictions                                                           
S&P 500 Close on:                          12/31/2021  12/30/2022  2022 Low            
                                           $4,766.18   $3,839.50   $3,491.58  -26.74%  
                                From       To          From        To         From     To
BMO CAPITAL MARKETS             $5,300.00  $5,300.00   11.20%      11.20%     -27.56%  -27.56%
WELLS FARGO                     $5,100.00  $5,300.00   7.00%       11.20%     -24.72%  -27.56%
GOLDMAN SACHS                   $5,100.00  $5,100.00   7.00%       7.00%      -24.72%  -24.72%
JPMORGAN                        $5,050.00  $5,050.00   5.95%       5.95%      -23.97%  -23.97%
RBC CAPITAL MARKETS             $5,050.00  $5,050.00   5.95%       5.95%      -23.97%  -23.97%
UBS                             $4,850.00  $4,850.00   1.76%       1.76%      -20.84%  -20.84%
BANK OF AMERICA                 $4,600.00  $4,600.00   -3.49%      -3.49%     -16.53%  -16.53%
MORGAN STANLEY                  $4,400.00  $4,400.00   -7.68%      -7.68%     -12.74%  -12.74%
NED DAVIS RESEARCH - 12/7/2022  $4,300.00  $4,300.00   -9.78%      -9.78%     -10.71%  -10.71%
Average of All                                         1.99%       2.46%      -20.64%  -20.95%
ZEE Historical Precedent        $3,812.94  $3,336.33   -20.00%     -30.00%    0.70%    15.08%

In fact, the S&P 500's highest high was $4,818.62 on 1/4/2022. It's lowest low was on 10/13/2022 at $3,491.58. That is a drop of -27.54%. Now let me illustrate one example of how historical precedent helps. In the article I released on 1/1/2022 I shared research regarding inflation rates hitting six percent. Here is the table:

6.00%   Date        Date        S&P 500    S&P 500             S&P 500     S&P 500
Months  Begins      Ends        Max Price  Min Price  % Drop   Peak Date   Trough Date
4       4/30/1902   8/30/1902   $8.85      $6.26      -29.27%  9/30/1902   10/31/1903
6       10/31/1902  4/30/1903   $8.85      $6.26      -29.27%  9/30/1902   10/31/1903
1       2/28/1907   3/31/1907   $10.03     $7.45      -25.72%  9/30/1906   9/30/1907
6       5/31/1907   11/30/1907  $9.93      $6.25      -37.06%  11/30/1906  11/30/1907
14      4/30/1909   6/30/1910   $10.23     $8.64      -15.54%  10/31/1909  7/31/1910
12      4/30/1912   4/15/1913   $9.86      $8.12      -17.65%  9/30/1912   6/30/1913
2       4/15/1916   6/15/1916   $10.21     $6.80      -33.40%  11/30/1916  12/31/1917
55      7/15/1916   1/15/1921   $10.21     $6.27      -38.58%  11/30/1916  6/22/1921
24      9/15/1941   9/15/1943   $10.47     $7.47      -28.65%  7/28/1941   4/28/1942
28      8/15/1946   12/15/1948  $19.25     $13.55     -29.61%  5/29/1946   6/13/1949
12      2/15/1951   2/15/1952   $22.81     $20.96     -8.11%   5/3/1951    6/29/1951
3       1/15/1970   4/15/1970   $99.23     $68.61     -30.86%  11/10/1969  5/26/1970
3       5/15/1970   8/15/1970   $97.36     $68.61     -29.53%  11/17/1969  5/26/1970
34      9/15/1973   7/15/1976   $115.47    $60.96     -47.21%  3/15/1973   10/4/1974
66      4/15/1977   9/15/1982   $107.97    $86.45     -19.93%  1/3/1977    3/1/1978
4       10/15/1990  2/15/1991   $369.78    $294.51    -20.36%  7/16/1990   10/11/1990
14      11/10/2021  12/31/2022  $4,818.62  $3,491.58  -27.54%  1/4/2022    10/13/2022
17      Average                                       -27.55%              

So this average from 1900 to the end of 2021 was -27.55%. The maximum drop in the S&P 500 was -27.54%. It was off by 0.01%. Will this ever happen again? Doubtful. But it illustrates how historical precedent can guide investments. It is not a crystal ball, but history often rhymes.

Keep in mind this is just one example. I track a very large number of indicators from various fields, and it is their consensus that I pay most attention to, not one single indicator in isolation.

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