*                         5/20     5/27     6/3      6/10/24
S&P 500 Index             5303.27  5304.72  5277.51  5346.99
Trailing 12 month PE      27.18    27.14    27.11    27.42
Trail Earnings yield      3.68%    3.68%    3.69%    3.65%
Forward 12 month PE       22.85    22.80    22.68    22.92
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.38%    4.39%    4.41%    4.36%
90 day tbill yield        5.46     5.46     5.46     5.52
10 year tbond yield       4.42%    4.46%    4.51%    4.43%
Arezi Ratio               1.48     1.48     1.48     1.51
Fed Ratio                 1.01     1.02     1.02     1.02

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 44%
stocks, 56% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 14%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 65%.

Elan

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