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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: luxmain   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Market YTD / Shiller / Buffett Ratio
Date: 09/15/23 11:11 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
finviz.com: S&P 500 Map

This is a visual map of market gains in % terms this year.

It does not include the rally from October to December 2022.

However, it gives you an idea of which parts of the market have raced ahead the most in 2023.

Those parts IMHO may be more likely to race backwards in any correction or crash.

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The Shiller CAPE P/E, SP500 market price/sales, Buffett ratio, etc remain very elevated though not quite at record levels.

Shiller: 31x vs historical peak 45x and recent peak 40x

multpl.com - Shiller pe

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SP500 Price/sales: 2.5x vs historical peak 3x

multpl.com - S p price to sales

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Buffett Ratio: 177% GDP (1.5x standard deviations) vs 2.6x standard deviation peak.

Consider the 50 years from 1973 to 2023.

It is interesting to see that across 5 decades, the market spends very little time above 1 standard deviation upwards.

currentmarketvaluation.com - Buffett indicator

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