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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: anchak   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Bearish signal
Date: 03/08/25 8:34 PM
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Folks ....let me clarify a few things - these are like back of mind and I have a way of sequencing them which may not be apparent to others.

What are we discussing above here are as follows ( We will stick with the SP-500)

(1) SP-500 closing below its 200DMA. - This is first order CIT ( Change in Trend) call.
(2) SP-500 Below the 200MA ( or Weekly or Monthly equivalent) with 2 Economic Overlays published in the 3rd week of that same month - GTT
(3) Death or Golden Cross - this is a shorter MA like 50DMA crossing the 200DMA: This is mixed order - Moving Averages have embedded lags - typically 1/2 the period
-- so ballpark max( 25,100) - So closer to 100 days ( from the absolute peak)

(4) The BC Slope is Slope ie 1st derivative or relative change of the 200DMA itself - this will absolutely be gradual and CAN and WILL VARY based on geometry .... like a long term range bound market will slowly deteriorate the slope etc. Drawing a 1-to-1 to the above is tough. Hence IMHO - this indicator stands on its own - and deserves the BC moniker! ( I think contributed by Tpoto and improved by Jim?)

Hope this helps!
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