Munger_Disciple thank you for that sobering analysis. It sounds like the facts of the matter. A slow decline. The only question is: how slow. The current FCF and 8 multiple is probably attractive but it’s a cigar butt. Maybe the FCF gives it a margin of safety. Certainly compared to other companies with high multiples and high expectations for future FCF, it might also fare better in a market decline. Hardly an endorsement but maybe not loosing money is Berkshire’s attraction.

Berkshire has done some very mediocre investments over the years and this does look like another one. IBM, Paramount Global were two that come to mind. I suppose if SIRI does play out to be a dud, the bigger concern is what does this mean for capital allocation in the public markets in the long term. Another dud to add to the list. It’s just so hard for Berkshire to find anything good now.

I guess the lesson is, as was pointed out here last week, copying Berkshire’s trades nowadays is not a great idea.

For me, I will play it out until Berkshire sells.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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