This is spot on. The world is awash in oil supply and the US is producing, I believe, more than any country ever has at any time. Regular Unleaded in my town is $2.69 a gallon.

Markets are discounting even higher production—with corresponding lower future prices. The irony is “drill baby drill” will most likely discourage drilling at presumably lower, less profitable prices.

Drill baby drill is the answer to a problem that does not exist. The big boys are going to be reluctant to give up market share (I share your concerns about market discipline). Trump may be right that $1.87 pump prices are coming. This is very negative news for everyone in the industry. But great for consumers.

Ironically, the Dem administration with some curbs on drilling, rhetoric on fossil fuels, and push for EVs—was a very nice sweet spot for the supply/demand for US Oil companies: a slight price premium with record high output. This is arguably as good as it gets. That sweet spot chapter is about to end.