It's clear that I'm always wrong.
Why, only four days ago I said "I imagine their upcoming quarterly release is likely to be weak, with new weak surprises. They have certainly telegraphed it enough. "

The thing that bothers me about the shrink is that it's low.
If shrink were high, it would be comforting: we know there is a problem and we know what it is.
US retail shrink is higher than the last couple of years, maybe 1.6% of sales this year, maybe even 1.65%, versus about 1.4% in the last couple of years. But it was 1.6% in 2019 and 1.75% in 2000.
For me the message is that the problem is not shrink--shrink is being used as a fashionable excuse for weak earnings releases.
So what is the real problem?
One possibility is not so bad: retail is simply hurting because a recession is coming soon. Times are getting tougher, and perhaps they don't in general have the right mix of products for early recession part of the cycle.
Admittedly the rise of organized retail crime is bad, as there is no obvious fix for it that doesn't cost almost as much as the losses. But it's very small compared to the size of the overall business.

As for stopping buybacks, that is very annoying to say the least. It's the main silver lining from low market prices.
That leaves them with the problem of what they'll do with this year's (still huge) profits. I presume they will retire a lot of the debt coming due this year rather than roll it?

Jim