Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of StartingBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m Weekly ¤Learn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of StartingBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m Weekly ¤Learn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Personal Finance / Investing Beginners
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) |
Author: earslookin ✶x2  😊 😞
Number: of 96 
Subject: Re: How to invest (part 3 of 3) Shrewd'm style
Date: 02/11/26 5:28 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 12
I really enjoyed your Chapter 8 on valuing companies. The focus on finding strong businesses, thinking long
term, and being willing to skip an investment if you’re not confident makes sense.

I also agree that spreadsheets can give a false sense of precision. Changing a discount rate slightly can move
the numbers a lot, and that’s easy to overlook.

I did wonder, though, whether drawing such a sharp contrast with DCF might risk throwing the baby out with the
bathwater. The basic idea — that a business is worth the cash it can generate over time, adjusted for time and
risk — seems pretty foundational. Even Buffett has often said that the value of any asset is the present value
of the cash it will produce.

In fact, when we estimate earnings 10 years out, apply a future P/E, and compare that to today’s price, we’re
still using that same underlying logic — just in a simpler and more intuitive way.

I only mention this because newer investors might come away thinking discounting itself is flawed, when maybe
the real issue is how much confidence we place in the output. Any valuation method, whether IV10 or DCF, still
depends on assumptions about the future.

Overall, I think the framework is clear and practical. I just wonder if softening the contrast with DCF slightly
might make it even stronger.

Ears
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to earslookin here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 95 posts about Investing Beginners. The article-length ones it recommended most:
How to invest (part 1 of 3) Shrewd'm style · 62 recs · 2026
How to invest (part 3 of 3) Shrewd'm style · 44 recs · 2026
How to invest (part 2 of 3) Shrewd'm style · 34 recs · 2026
Welcome! · 13 recs · 2023
Yield vs Coupon · 4 recs · 2023
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) |


Announcements
Investing Beginners FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of Starting | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community | Privacy