No. of Recommendations: 2
Good post - briefly,
- political risk (to the economy, to housebuilding regs/planning etc)
- cladding remediation risk (huge)
- regulations making it take longer to build (a 6 month average extra delay = may wipe out the profit margin on the build)
- interest rate risk
- house prices are unaffordable, yet housebuilders who bought land 20 years ago still can barely turn a profit on it. wtf. if they can't make money in this market, how will they make money if the housing market crashes?
- stock imho is highly operationally geared to all of the above and to broad economy/recession risk
- stock is 'cheap' valued relative to a 'mild' future, has net cash, and can probably survive one of the above going badly wrong but not several
- cladding! again! it's a huge issue and potentially wipes out the net cash position.
- it will be a feast or famine kind of stock I think
all IMHO, please check for yourself.
TRS
