Unemployment expected to spike

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But the good news is that the billionaires with Trump last week made more billions when Trump goosed the market.

finance.yahoo.com - Americans braced for biggest unemployment rate jump since the pandemic as tariffs muddy outlook
Unemployment concerns are on the rise among American workers as fears about the labor market in March reached levels last seen during the pandemic, according to a new survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday.

The NY Fed's survey showed mean unemployment expectations among respondents — or the mean probability that the US unemployment rate will be higher one year from now — jumped 4.6 percentage points to 44% last month, the highest level since April 2020.

The average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed in the next 12 months increased by 1.6 percentage points in March to 15.7%, the highest level since March 2024. The increase was largest for respondents with annual household incomes below $50,000.

Meanwhile, the average probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months ticked up only slightly, rising by 0.4 percentage points to 18%, far below the 12-month trailing average of 19.7%.

The survey, which also noted declining expectations around household income growth, comes as Trump's tariff whipsaw has wreaked havoc on consumers' (and Wall Street's) expectations about the future of the US economy.

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