Or is it falling shards of glass?

This US manufacturer of windows has seen its stock drop from $30 in 2021 when at least one value fund I know of was buying it, to $20 2 years ago, dropping to under $10 by the end of 2024, to $2.50 by the end of 2025, to under $2 just 6 weeks ago, and just dipped below $1 for the first time last week, finishing the week at $1.05, for a market cap of about $90m. It has $1366m in debt and $136m in cash, quarterly interest payments of about $67m. It had positive operating income of $172m in 2023 falling to $35 in 2024 and -$17m last year, just -$7m in the last 3 quarters but the 1st quarter is usually the least profitable so Q1 of this year will presumably be horrible.

Can they turn things around in time to avoid bankruptcy? They have been selling assets and closing the least profitable factories, and are sure to end up much smaller, if they survive at all. The current price is saying that Mr Market thinks that is unlikely.

So it is a lottery ticket with a pretty binary outcome: a high probability of bankruptcy and no recovery for shareholders, but also a small non-zero chance of a huge payout. Possibly a positive expected value? Or is this a window-maker on its way to being a widowmaker?

dtb