Post #267 by mungofitch on the US Policy board

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I'm divesting from the US. I've already sold all my T-bills and sold (so far) 96% of my US stock positions including everything in my quant portfolio.
...
Your ability to time the market top, not only as a theoretical speculation, but actually taking action - is pretty astonishing. Your post was on 17 March 2025, and the S&P500 was peaking (the market peak one extra trading day on 19 March).
Your exit (or at least, your post): S&P600 = $611
Today: S&P500 = $504
Associated gain (from underexposure): 21%

Comments:

(a) I am unfortunately unable to predict the future, but it's always better to be lucky than smart
(b) The returns (avoided losses) have actually been a fair bit better than that, as I converted all my USD to non-USD currencies at about the same time, and the US dollar has fallen 3.9% since then : )
(c) To further bolster point (a) above: I opened up a pretty big new position in a non-US stock on April 3, just before a certain US announcement that had some adverse economic ripples. Oops.

Jim

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