No. of Recommendations: 14
I didn't call the bottom.
I created a model which tries to do so.
Since then, I merely report what it says, and how it has done.
It's a subtle difference...
I understand the distinction. That would apply firmly also if you had published every single major bottom, but you happened to publish on a particular date (following a series of major bottoms).
On the other hand, given that you (1) made one prominent observation, then (2) the probability of that one observation being both within (i) 1 day of the major bottom, and (ii) surviving as the bottom for 3 months, I believe to be a fairly low probability. It wouldn't surprise me if it was less than 15% chance, even after being informed by the model and trusting the probabilities given by the model (I'm approximating given the number of outputs by the model).
The major bottom model for the whole series of outputs, I believe is good. But whether in category of luck or skill, the individual call that you made was a lot more than good.
- Manlobbi
