But of course, it could be that 99% are LTBH, but on any given day the activity we see will still exist because the LTBH are doing nothing, the only people doing something are NOT LTBY no matter whether they are a majority or a pimple on the face of the market. So the paradox: the market will always LOOK like nobody is LTBH whether or not people are LTBH.

Another interesting conundrum of the market:
Let's assume for the moment that the consensus opinion of all of those who look at the stock market is actually the correct valuation over time. Hey, it could happen.

But among that group there are people who consider equities NEVER a good deal, and they never own any and never trade them, so their opinion is never factored into the consensus price of the day. So it's quite possible that on average the consensus opinion of all observers is correct, but ALSO that on average the market is overvalued---the optimists are disproportionate buyers and investors, so the current price is a skewed to the high side. Similarly, as you note, the daily price is the consensus of the short term holders, and has almost zero input from the long term holders.

Sampling can be weird.
Imagine you ride the bus, lots of different routes at lots of different times, and you tried to estimate the average number of people on a bus. You will get a skewed result because you won't ever be on an empty bus. Not only that, but if your rides are distributed in a typical way you will get a high estimate because you will more often be part of a crowd seeing a high number: you're sampling the big numbers more often.

Jim