I assume you know Python and can double check the generated Python code.

Yes, I have a data science background, and have used Python extensively to analyze datasets with millions of rows. To double check the code that claude.ai generated, I first looked at a price chart of SPY on the dates that the program said to switch to SPY or IEI, and found that they did line up with 6-month highs and 52-week lows.

I also changed the start date to Jan 2007 to include the 2008-09 bear market, and the program correctly calculated SPY's max drawdown as 55%. The strategy got out of SPY on 2008-Jan-17 and got back in on 2009-May-09 with a max drawdown of only 15%. So it worked well to avoid the worst of the Great Recession. But this type of market timing hasn't worked satisfactorily since 2010, as my post-discovery backtest shows.

Here's the Python program that claude.ai generated to backtest the strategy. Claude also told me which Python packages to install. You will need to run pip install yfinance pandas numpy to install all the packages.

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import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from datetime import datetime

def get_historical_data(ticker, start_date, end_date):
    """Fetch historical data for a given ticker"""
    stock = yf.Ticker(ticker)
    df = stock.history(start=start_date, end=end_date)
    return df['Close']

def calculate_signals(spy_prices):
    """Calculate trading signals based on 52-week lows and 26-week highs"""
    # Calculate rolling windows
    rolling_52_week_low = spy_prices.rolling(window=252).min()  # 252 trading days ≈ 52 weeks
    rolling_26_week_high = spy_prices.rolling(window=126).max() # 126 trading days ≈ 26 weeks

    # Initialize signals DataFrame
    signals = pd.DataFrame(index=spy_prices.index)
    signals['spy_price'] = spy_prices
    signals['52_week_low'] = rolling_52_week_low
    signals['26_week_high'] = rolling_26_week_high

    # Generate buy/sell signals
    signals['position'] = 'SPY'  # Start with SPY position

    # Initialize with first position as SPY
    current_position = 'SPY'
    positions = []

    for i in range(len(signals)):
        if current_position == 'SPY' and signals['spy_price'].iloc[i] == signals['52_week_low'].iloc[i]:
            current_position = 'IEI'
        elif current_position == 'IEI' and signals['spy_price'].iloc[i] == signals['26_week_high'].iloc[i]:
            current_position = 'SPY'
        positions.append(current_position)

    signals['position'] = positions
    return signals

def calculate_returns(signals, iei_prices):
    """Calculate strategy returns"""
    # Initialize portfolio value
    portfolio = pd.DataFrame(index=signals.index)
    portfolio['position'] = signals['position']

    # Calculate daily returns
    spy_returns = signals['spy_price'].pct_change()
    iei_returns = iei_prices.pct_change()

    # Calculate strategy returns based on position
    portfolio['daily_return'] = 0.0

    for i in range(1, len(portfolio)):
        if portfolio['position'].iloc[i] == 'SPY':
            portfolio['daily_return'].iloc[i] = spy_returns.iloc[i]
        else:
            portfolio['daily_return'].iloc[i] = iei_returns.iloc[i]

    # Calculate cumulative returns
    portfolio['cumulative_return'] = (1 + portfolio['daily_return']).cumprod()

    return portfolio

def calculate_buy_and_hold_returns(spy_prices):
    """Calculate returns for buy-and-hold SPY strategy"""
    buy_hold = pd.DataFrame(index=spy_prices.index)
    buy_hold['daily_return'] = spy_prices.pct_change()
    buy_hold['cumulative_return'] = (1 + buy_hold['daily_return']).cumprod()
    return buy_hold

def calculate_risk_metrics(portfolio):
    """Calculate risk metrics including Sharpe ratio and maximum drawdown"""
    # Calculate Sharpe Ratio
    risk_free_rate = 0.02  # Assuming 2% annual risk-free rate
    daily_rf_rate = (1 + risk_free_rate) ** (1/252) - 1
    excess_returns = portfolio['daily_return'] - daily_rf_rate
    sharpe_ratio = np.sqrt(252) * (excess_returns.mean() / excess_returns.std())

    # Calculate Maximum Drawdown
    cum_returns = portfolio['cumulative_return']
    rolling_max = cum_returns.expanding().max()
    drawdowns = cum_returns / rolling_max - 1
    max_drawdown = drawdowns.min()

    # Calculate when max drawdown occurred
    max_drawdown_idx = drawdowns.idxmin()
    peak_idx = rolling_max.loc[:max_drawdown_idx].idxmax()

    return {
        'sharpe_ratio': sharpe_ratio,
        'max_drawdown': max_drawdown,
        'max_drawdown_start': peak_idx,
        'max_drawdown_end': max_drawdown_idx
    }

def calculate_cagr(portfolio, start_date, end_date):
    """Calculate Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)"""
    total_return = portfolio['cumulative_return'].iloc[-1]

    # Calculate number of years
    start_date = pd.to_datetime(start_date)
    end_date = pd.to_datetime(end_date)
    years = (end_date - start_date).days / 365.25

    # Calculate CAGR
    cagr = (total_return ** (1/years)) - 1

    return cagr

def main():
    # Set date range
    start_date = '2009-12-31'
    end_date = datetime.now().strftime('%Y-%m-%d')

    # Fetch historical data
    spy_prices = get_historical_data('SPY', start_date, end_date)
    iei_prices = get_historical_data('IEI', start_date, end_date)

    # Calculate signals and returns for strategy
    signals = calculate_signals(spy_prices)
    portfolio = calculate_returns(signals, iei_prices)

    # Calculate buy-and-hold returns
    buy_hold = calculate_buy_and_hold_returns(spy_prices)

    # Calculate metrics for both strategies
    strategy_metrics = calculate_risk_metrics(portfolio)
    buy_hold_metrics = calculate_risk_metrics(buy_hold)

    strategy_cagr = calculate_cagr(portfolio, start_date, end_date)
    buy_hold_cagr = calculate_cagr(buy_hold, start_date, end_date)

    # Print results
    initial_investment = 10000  # Example initial investment

    print(f"\nBacktest Results ({start_date} to {end_date}):")
    print("\nTrading Strategy Performance:")
    strategy_final = initial_investment * portfolio['cumulative_return'].iloc[-1]
    strategy_return = (strategy_final / initial_investment - 1) * 100
    print(f"Final Value: ${strategy_final:,.2f}")
    print(f"Total Return: {strategy_return:.2f}%")
    print(f"CAGR: {strategy_cagr*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {strategy_metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.2f}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown: {strategy_metrics['max_drawdown']*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Max Drawdown Period: {strategy_metrics['max_drawdown_start'].date()} to {strategy_metrics['max_drawdown_end'].date()}")

    print("\nBuy and Hold SPY Performance:")
    buy_hold_final = initial_investment * buy_hold['cumulative_return'].iloc[-1]
    buy_hold_return = (buy_hold_final / initial_investment - 1) * 100
    print(f"Final Value: ${buy_hold_final:,.2f}")
    print(f"Total Return: {buy_hold_return:.2f}%")
    print(f"CAGR: {buy_hold_cagr*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Sharpe Ratio: {buy_hold_metrics['sharpe_ratio']:.2f}")
    print(f"Maximum Drawdown: {buy_hold_metrics['max_drawdown']*100:.2f}%")
    print(f"Max Drawdown Period: {buy_hold_metrics['max_drawdown_start'].date()} to {buy_hold_metrics['max_drawdown_end'].date()}")

    # Print trade summary
    position_changes = portfolio[portfolio['position'] != portfolio['position'].shift(1)]
    print(f"\nStrategy Trade Summary:")
    print(f"Number of Trades: {len(position_changes)}")
    print("\nTrade History:")
    for date, row in position_changes.iterrows():
        print(f"{date.date()}: Switch to {row['position']}")

if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()

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