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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: FlyingCircus   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Using AI to generate backtesting programs
Date: 01/06/25 11:07 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 12
What a phenomenal specification for how to the next phase of mechanical investing!

In a related vein, I used Google's Gemini - in Sheets - to "analyze my data" - which was my curated logging sheet of the last six years of weekly market timing signal tracking and SPY index values. This was after using the excellent and venerable software tool Orange on the same dataset. I had spent probably 8-12 hours curating/refining the source data and adding custom calculated fields such as forward 1 month return.

I learned the basics of Orange in a few hours and was able to generate (and learn about) stats on the predictive value of week to week signal changes for forward returns in a few more hours.

The Gemini plugin returned similar statistical analysis and results with better - excellent - layman's explanations in 15 seconds.

They both told me there's effectively zero predictability in forward returns from a sum of weekly changes in the signal totals. (There may be, at extremes). But this tool can very quickly help me analyze which of the indicators I track may be more associated/correlated with positive future return periods - especially at switch times. (Like the BCs, breadth measures, etc.).

Good hunting,
FC

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This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
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