No. of Recommendations: 7
Watching the American electorate return George W Bush to office in 2004 (despite it being clear his Administration outright fabricated the rationale for war in Iraq to the US and world) and put Trump in office in 2016 reinforced my reluctance to ever attempt predictions about politics and economics.
However, seeing reaction to the announcement from Ron DeSantis that he is exiting the race after coming in second in a single caucus points out a few additional stars that seem to be aligning in the Republican universe. But are they a "sign" or an "omen?"
* any remaining race is down to Trump versus Haley
* any Never-Trumpers left in the Republican party only have one candidate to coalesce around -- Haley
* Rep. Elise Stefanik from NY is tripping over herself to be VP on a Trump ticket
* DeSantis has confirmed to past, present and future financial backers he has ZERO electoral charisma
It is still ABSOLUTLY possible that trial courts, appellate courts, the US Supreme Court and Georgia State courts could delay or foul up the numerous federal and state criminal trials involving Trump. At least for the federal charges, it is still absolutely plausible that Trump could win the 2024 election and be sworn into office before the federal cases reach a point where he could be convicted and exhaust appeals. (And he WILL appeal any conviction, requring MONTHS of additional legal wrangling.)
But these stars also point out another possible result:
* Trump runs away with the Republican nomination and becomes the nominee
* Elise Stefanik gets sucked into the VP slot by ambition and surrenders her House seat
* The American public suddenly reaches a tipping point from Trump's incoherent ramblings and open contempt for courts and democracy and he loses in the general election
* Elise Stefanik is removed from national politics
* Ron DeSantis is seen for the empty suit he is by Florida voters and gets voted out in 2026
These are all possible outcomes. Would they be enough for any supposed traditional Republicans to exorcise the remaining MAGA insantity from their party? Probably not.
The only state of affairs that matters at this point is that recent activity in the courts makes it clear that counting on results from courts to put a stake through MAGA insanity is not a viable option. The ONLY path to its elimination involves Republicans at large losing the 2024 election, not only at the top of the ticket but more broadly across the House, Senate and state races.
WTH
