No. of Recommendations: 2
"Main shot" does not imply only doing one thing. Quite the opposite - it implies doing more than one thing, of which one is the most significant. And that's absolutely what happened. It's hard to imagine what 'shot' would be more significant than the decapitating attack that took out nearly all of the country's then-leadership all at once. That was the moment when the regime's stability and continuity plans would have undergone their biggest stress: most of the decision-makers killed at once, the successors having whatever internal jockeying for power all happening at the same time and under extreme duress, all during the fog of ongoing attacks by the U.S.
Then this is incorrect. There have been several 'shots'. Their Navy is gone, their air defense is gone and now it looks like their ballistic missile production is gone. Drones are next.
But unlike Libya, where the old regime immediately collapsed upon Gaddafi's death, the Iranian regime successfully implemented their contingency planning and maintained control of the country. There's been no sign of any civil war starting, intelligence consistently reports that the IRGC maintains firm control over the country and the Iranian populace, and there's no public sign of any weakening of the political or military command structures.
Define "control" of the country. There's an army of Kurds over their border. Do they control that area? Is the IRGC issuing orders to anyone there?
What's the contrary take? If the regime didn't collapse after the decapitating strike, what's the "shot" we take that causes them to collapse? Seizing Kharg Island would be a significant event - but is it plausible that it would bring down the regime? Why would the U.S. seizing a single island literally on the other side of the country from Tehran - even a critically important small island - affect their ability to remain in power?
Because all their currency is driven by oil sales and all their thugs need to be paid. What happens if they land the MEU/MEF on Kharj island and take it over?
Let it play out.
