No. of Recommendations: 7
I hate to went back and watched the clip. I agree that he was likely referring to market value and not book value of Berkshire.
He said it would be a trillion and a half in 12 to 15 years. If you assume that the share count then remains the same as now, then yes, the return per annum from now will be around 6 percent.
However, if the share count reduces (which is very likely), the return will be much higher.
As a rough example, if they are able to buy back half the shares during the period, then the return per annum will be over 12 percent.
Chris Bloomstran has modeled the share count reduction in his models of future return from Berkshire, and I would be surprised if Mr. Buffett has not done so.
