I wonder if with Greg certainly driving improvements in the operating companies profits, can we just assume an average of 10% return on equity or better and a 2% LONG TERM return on float?

If inflation if 4%, yes.
If inflation is zero, no.

It's probably better to ask what after-inflation rate of growth is plausible.

For the whole company combined, they have managed roughly inflation + 8% growth in value per share for over 25 years, remarkably steadily. I'm pretty sure that era has finally come to an end...it was managed in recent years only because of the Apple trade, which can never be repeated, and Mr Buffett is not going to be there to disprove the efficient market hypothesis yet again.

If you merely don't play too much in bubbles, a monkey with a dartboard can probably achieve inflation + 6.5%/year in equities. I expect the same from Berkshire...average return from public and owned businesses. Add a bit from leverage, subtract a bit because of the drag from always having some cash allocation, maybe those two cancel out.

So I would still pencil in growth in value per share of around inflation + 7%. Maybe 7.5% or 8% for just a few more years on trend if things go particularly well, for example some big allocations during the next bear market, but I wouldn't count on that.

It's possible that one would have to subtract a bit from that 7% figure if the US dollar falls materially and no longer makes a stable yardstick for *an* portfolio even with a US-CPI adjustment. Not expected, but possible. Despite the recent slide, the US dollar level is still 25% above is average 10-20 years ago. There is no currently visible stampede of ex-US capital flowing into US markets to chase sure-fire returns. If the flow slows to under a trillion a year, the current account deficit, the dollar will fall.

Jim