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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Low Vol Screen Using NAS100
Date: 11/14/25 4:53 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Nuzzo fast!

I read this paper with interest and thought to try a backtest. By
happenstance I was recently working on another project which would
make a backtest easily possible.
After a few trips down box canyons and blind alleys I was able to
backtest this Lazy Man’s Momentum Strategy.
SSRN: Research paper

From the Exhibit A2 of the paper, there are 16 ETFs which have been
available since July 1996, a period of 29 years.

Tested with
Number of dates: 58
Starting 1996/06/01 ending 2024/12/01

29 years. All the ETFs were available on June 1996.
Equal weight recast in July and December, for a 6 month hold. Buy the
top N stocks ranked by 6 month Relative Strength (momentum).
Returns include reinvested dividends. RS is price-only.

6 month relative strength using 16 ETFs.
Take the top N in equal weight, reconstituted in July and December

Performance calculated for each portfolio run.
Long term results are the average of all 58 runs.

CAGR and standard deviation:
Top 2: 11.6% Stdev: 33%
Top 5: 11.4% Stdev: 28%
Top 10: 9.5% Stdev: 27%
Top 12: 9.7% Stdev: 26%
All 16: 9.8% Stdev: 26%

SPY buy & hold: 12.1% Stdev: 21%

Another great idea destroyed by reality.
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Members reply directly to rayvt here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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