Aussi asked: My interpretation of Zee's post was that if the NHNL has not gone negative very close to a peak, then there will be a new peak before a 20% correction. Should I revise my interpretation?

Good thinking! Yes, typically if the days to a NH-NL Bearish signal takes longer after a highest high either the degree of drop will be muted, or the length of time in bear territory will be shorter.

This is not always true, however, with the Feb-March drop in 2020 one of the exceptions, but that was due to a rather rare event, and not market driven. The response of the government, and most importantly, the FED, caused it to be short in duration. So in all respects unusual.

            NH-NL       Market  Bear Mkt  Days to  Final
20% Peak    Turns Bear  Days    Drop      Trough   Trough
1/11/1973   1/18/1973   5       -49.93%   631      10/4/1974
2/13/1980   3/5/1980    14      -21.62%   43       3/27/1980
8/25/1987   9/22/1987   19      -35.94%   56       10/20/1987
7/16/1990   7/19/1990   3       -20.36%   87       10/11/1990
7/20/1998   7/22/1998   2       -22.45%   80       10/8/1998
3/24/2000   4/3/2000    6       -50.50%   930      10/10/2002
10/11/2007  10/18/2007  5       -57.69%   512      3/6/2009
5/2/2011    5/24/2011   16      -21.58%   155      10/4/2011
9/21/2018   10/2/2018   7       -20.21%   96       12/26/2018
2/19/2020   2/25/2020   4       -35.41%   33       3/23/2020
1/3/2022    11/18/2021  -30     -27.54%   283      10/13/2022
2/7/2025    2/19/2025   -8      -21.35%   59       4/7/2025

Elann wrote: I believe there are dozens of cases (at least) of the NH-NL bear catcher turning bearish without an ensuing 20% bear market. So the BC probably has zero value in predicting major bear markets.

I personally don't see it in terms of predicting anything, but rather, telling us what the market is actually doing. This is why a sole indicator is not much use. It is the consensus of indicators all saying the same thing that ratchets up one's need to act, in this case, defensively. Without strong consensus it is a "blah, who cares" event that should, and must, be ignored.