Mechinv wrote: Also, as a practical matter, most investors don't sell completely out of stocks and go 100% to cash, due to the hefty taxes they would incur in taxable accounts.

I threw this together based on one of my holdings - META. This is based on using my actual signals and comparing a LTBH approach to actually selling the position completely and moving to cash and then back into the position at the next signal.

Based on a 15% LT Capital Gains Tax you end up with $776,633 based on buying at the March 23rd, 2020 signal, and selling at the 11/18/2021 signal to exit using my overall model perspective and the Nasdaq NH-NL Bear Catcher.

In contrast, holding from the start and not selling you'd end up with $307,036. There is a pretty significant difference if my calculations are correct. Please go ahead and offer corrections if/where needed.

Trade META Using Timing Signals  Date        META Close  % ROI            Cum ROI   Pay Tax   Tax Paid  
BUY                              3/23/2020   $148.10                      $100,000  $100,000            
SELL                             11/18/2021  $338.69     128.69%          $228,690  $209,387  $19,304   15%
BUY                              10/12/2022  $127.50     4%               $237,838  $217,762            
SELL                             2/6/2024    $454.72     256.64%          $848,232  $776,633            
                                                         Cost of Trading            $71,598             
                                                                                                        
Trade META Using Timing Signals  Date        META Close  % ROI            Cum ROI   Pay Tax   Tax Paid  
BUY                              3/23/2020   $148.10                      $100,000  $100,000            
SELL                             11/18/2021  $338.69     128.69%          $228,690  $202,952  $25,738   20%
BUY                              10/12/2022  $127.50     4%               $237,838  $211,070            
SELL                             2/6/2024    $454.72     256.64%          $848,232  $752,767            
                                                         Cost of Trading            $95,465             
                                                                                                        
LTBH                             Date        META Close  % ROI                                          
BUY                              3/23/2020   $148.10                      $100,000                      
SELL                             2/6/2024    $454.72     207.04%          $307,036