No. of Recommendations: 2
One of the biggest advantages BRK has ever had was using float as a means to have access to cheap money to invest. My keeping monetary policy loose for over 30 years, the FED negated (or at least minimized) Berkshires advantage of cheap capital by giving it to everyone. But now that monetary is going to go back to being closer to normal, BRK will once again have an advantage with access to capital.
Another way of saying this is that Berkshire was hurt by zero/very low rates of the last 20 years+ and benefited recently from higher rates. But who the hell knows what the future rates are going to be? Its seems that markets are predicting virtually a 100% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 0.25% in September.
While I think it is quite possible (and even likely) that normalized rates would be far higher in the future than they were before the pandemic, that is by no means certain. There are people who think it is very hard for the Fed to continue to have high rates given the high govt debt relative to GDP (100%) and very budget deficits (6-7%)as far as the eye can see.
