I get a kick out of your posts, they are always fun to read.

On topic, the other day, Sam Altman warned we might be in an AI bubble, comparing it to the tech bubble:

nypost.com - Openai CEO sam altman warns of AI bubble says investors are overexcited report

He could be right, but the thing about the tech bubble is that everyone who believed the Internet would transform the world was spot on. The companies they bet on might have been wrong, but they were right about the upside.

As a layman, it seems AI is more incremental that transformative. Simple sports and finance stories have been computer generated for a long time. Now AI is generating legal briefs, which is incredibly impressive, but you can kind of connect the dots between the two. And progress doesn't seem guaranteed. ChatGPT 5 was a flop, for instance.

Again, as a layman I'm still waiting for the killer AI app. But I think the killer app really will be a killer. When VisiCalc, the first killer app, was introduced, many people had to first buy the computer to run the software. To use Netscape you needed an Internet connection. But today everybody has an Internet connected computer in their pocket. ChatGPT went from zero users to 100 million in two months. If one of these companies can figure out an app that everybody needs, it could be enormous very quickly.