I'd have to say the frontrunner would be AOC, assuming she runs. She just has the biggest advantage - she'd clear the field on her side of the coalition.

True. But she’s also got a big disadvantage. She’s still far left - arguably not as far left as she was when she arrived in the House - but still out there. Could she actually win against a moderate Republican?

And another disadvantage - her main political experience is all in the House. And only for a decade or so. Most of the more moderate democrats you mentioned have a significantly larger resume, most with at least one high position at the state level of big states. Governor. AG. Positions like that. And a wider variety of positions.

Much as I like the concept of AOC taking a run in 2028, I think many of the more centrist possibilities have a better chance of winning against an average Republican candidate. Plus they are more likely to do a good job based on their broader and longer experience.

The last thing Democrats need in 2028 is someone too far left who can’t do a good job over their 4 year term.

—Peter