WTH,

As usual, a great and thorough analysis.

However, despite a masterful performance by Harris (since being endorsed by Biden, she has been extraordinarily impressive), this still looks like it will be a very close race due to several factors.

Trump’s base is incredibly loyal and active. Nothing logical seems to dissuade them, not even ridiculous claims of immigrants eating pets or overrunning towns. They take his bait as gospel, every single time.

The October surprise. Whatever stupidity is thrown at the last minute will amplified by right wing media, his base, and foreign enemies who salivate at the potential of another Trump term.

The antiquated Electoral College. Born out of slavery and unholy compromises, it is long overdue for the trash bin of history. But I have no illusion that will happen in my lifetime.

Voter suppression (wholesale voter “cleaning”, gerrymandering, new rules encouraging not certifying elections, voter intimidation, lack of voting machines in Democrat leaning districts, limited mail-in ballots, etc, etc.) is still, sadly, very much alive and well.

Folks, just voting is not enough in this election. Everyone has to become more active. Talk to neighbors and friends and respectfully encourage them to vote. VOLUNTEER! Write letters, join phone banks, go door-to-door, donate. Contact your local political party to find out about opportunities to help.

This is no time to rest on laurels.