Jim wrote: A bigger question is whether it's possible to be an insightful commentator on finance and economics without having a history as a market-beating money manager. I think so.

I don't think so! The proof is in the pudding!

I took a few minutes to obtain data on all of GMO's funds with a history of twenty years or more and compared their returns to a simple buy the market strategy holding SPY. Only one of their funds beat SPY, and that by only a very small fraction. Like Hussman, whose returns are way, way worse than these, it is one thing to be call the next bear market, but when that call comes years and years before it arrives and you invest in light of that call, by definition you will significantly under-perform the market.

One is better served buying a Vanguard Fund that tracks the S&P 500 at a very low expense ratio.

MULTI-ASSET CLASS                               Type         Symbol  Conception  Years  Begins  6/28/2024  ROI    CAGR    SPY
Benchmark-Free Allocation Fund                  Mutual Fund  GBMFX   7/23/2003   21.0   $6.56   $26.83     309%   6.95%   10.58%
Global Asset Allocation Fund                    Mutual Fund  GMWAX   10/22/1996  27.7   $9.92   $33.07     233%   4.44%   9.60%
                                                                                                                          
EQUITIES                                                                                                                  
Climate Change Fund                             Mutual Fund  GCCHX   4/5/2017    7.2                                      
Emerging Markets ex-China Fund                  Mutual Fund  GMOEX   12/9/1993   30.6   $4.06   $25.33     524%   6.17%   10.37%
Emerging Markets Fund                           Mutual Fund  GMAUX   10/18/2021  2.7                                      
Global Developed Equity Allocation Fund         Mutual Fund  GWOAX   6/16/2005   19.1                                     
Global Equity Allocation Fund                   Mutual Fund  GMGEX   11/26/1996  27.6   $3.30   $28.89     776%   8.18%   9.35%
International Developed Equity Allocation Fund  Mutual Fund  GIOTX   6/5/2006    18.1                                     
International Equity Allocation Fund            Mutual Fund  GIEAX   10/11/1996  27.7   $5.15   $29.07     465%   6.44%   9.60%
International Equity Fund                       Mutual Fund  GMOIX   3/31/1987   37.3   $1.79   $24.58     1275%  7.28%   10.59%
International Opportunistic Value Fund          Mutual Fund  GTMIX   7/29/1998   25.9   $3.37   $14.94     343%   5.91%   8.21%
Quality Cyclicals Fund                          Mutual Fund  GMAEX   5/12/2020   4.1                                      
Quality Fund                                    Mutual Fund  GQETX   2/6/2004    20.4   $4.24   $32.97     678%   10.57%  10.06%
Resource Transition Fund                        Mutual Fund  GMOYX   2/15/2023   1.4                                      
Resources Fund                                  Mutual Fund  GOFIX   12/28/2011  12.5                                     
Small Cap Quality Fund                          Mutual Fund  GSBGX   9/20/2022   1.8                                      
U.S. Equity Fund                                Mutual Fund  GMUEX   9/18/1985   38.8   $0.23   $14.88     6484%  11.39%  11.65%
U.S. Opportunistic Value Fund                   Mutual Fund  UUOAX   12/13/2022  1.6                                      
U.S. Quality ETF                                ETF          QLTY    12/13/2023  0.6                                      
U.S. Small Cap Value Fund                       Mutual Fund  GCAVX   7/2/2019    5.0                                      
Usonian Japan Value Creation Fund               Mutual Fund  GMAKX   9/14/2020   3.8                                      

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