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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: mechinv   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: End of an era - profit slowdown
Date: 12/19/23 5:56 PM
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In response to the previous post on this thread, let me quote directly from the Abstract of the "End of an Era" paper. You can read it at The Federal Reserve: PDF document

Smolyansky says:
"the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower
profit growth and stock returns in the future. "


He defined 1989-2019 as a "golden era" of excessive stock market returns. Well, it's obvious that the ever-declining interest rates part is wrong, isn't it? During 1993-94, interest rates on the 10-year T-bill rose from 5.4% to almost 8%, yet the market did pretty well. These rates are far higher than we have today. Rates also rose during 1998-99.

He also says these "ever-declining" interest rates are unlikely to continue. Wrong again. The Fed just forecast not one but three rate cuts next year. So interest rates will decline next year.

His other assertion, that the Federal corporate tax rate of 21% is unlikely to remain that low, remains to be seen. In some states, like CA and NY, combined Federal and State income taxes can hit 28%.

The problem when writing about investing to a general message board is that one size does not fit all. You have to find a strategy that's right for you. Some of you may be retired or financially independent baby boomers like me. Others of you may be millenials, GenX'ers or GenZ-ers in your wealth building years. What I said was that, primarily for this latter group, who are decades away from retirement, a DCA strategy into an index fund worked for me in my younger years, despite two long-drawn-out and severe recessions.
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This community has written 4,454 posts about Macroeconomic Trends & Risks. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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End of an era - profit slowdown · 36 recs · 2023
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From the Oregon Bay Area (a blogger) · 33 recs · 2025
Lerner Symmetry Theorem · 32 recs · 2025
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