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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
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Number: of 4768 
Subject: Re: France, a warning sign for Europe?
Date: 10/24/26 12:27 PM
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High government spending, rising debt, weak growth, ageing populations and mass migration are putting increasing pressure on public finances

Mind where you get your data, not from a narrative : )

Sure, the French budget picture is not pretty. Nolo contendere. But mass migration??
2025 net migration +91737 (World Bank), roughly half the 2022 figure.
2026 net migration estimate +66500 (unknown source), lowest in the last 10 years.
That's not much to mention on top of ~67 million.

One possible view of Europe: there was a big peace dividend from the end of the cold war. That budget money was redirected towards very pleasant support for the population without really raising taxes. And a bit more, too: borrowing a bit more every year.

But it's never politically easy to cut the pension budget, which is the biggest quadruped in the room. That's now needed because the borrowing is starting to approach its limits and the military budget needs restoring now that Europe is at war. (the word "hybrid" is so mealy mouthed that it's annoyingly misleading...a white python is still a friggin python, and the attacks are daily)

If the whole of French government debt were refinanced at current interest rates, the interest cost would average around €6000 per household per year.
In addition, they are borrowing the equivalent of another €2700 per household per year in primary deficit (shortfall before counting interest payments)

FWIW, in the US I think the equivalent "refinanced" interest cost per household is about 1.9 times as high at around $13000/year, and the primary deficit (budget shortfall before interest payments) about 2.4 times as high at about $7500/year. Figures need checking, but it's something like that.
That's counting all levels of government, which isn't really necessary in France because it's fiscally so centralized.
The good news is that, unlike France, the US issues its own currency and can inflate it away. The bad news is, they'll presumably have to.

Jim
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