YouTube: The Clash - Should I Stay or Should I Go (Official Audio) (theclashVEVO)

Bought some MPC in 2018 and then bought more in the spring of 2020 when it was about 25% of what we paid in 2018. We have been gifting away MPC over the past three years and the position continues to grow. Selling has always been harder for us (my bride and I) than making buying decisions and especially so during good times in the overall market. To clarify, most of our portfolio sales have been in market swoons and have been to exit a position to then jump into what we judge as a better investment. We do not exit and stay out during market swoons as it is the only time we as small stock pickers have some advantage as index funds and big active mutual funds stay on the sidelines without cash as they deal with meeting redemption requests of fearful investors.

There will eventually be a time coming where refinery profits plummet because of : a. refinery capacity being restored at those sites damaged by drone warfare, b. Asian refineries once again supplied with full crude allotments from the Middle East, c. New refinery capacity added to the international system, and d. Permanent demand destruction caused by current high prices and lack of fuel availability. Speaking of demand destruction, our household is a good example as we observed refineries destroyed by drones. We decided to have optionality and bought a used EV two months ago. Interestingly, it is now our primary vehicle for local travel and has reduced family refined product consumption by 50%. This is permanent demand destruction that is not coming back in our case.

MPC appears to be a well managed company. To my mind management has limited choices for the huge amount of cash rolling into the company. It can pay off debt (it is not doing this because of long maturity low interest rate debt). It can buy back stock (it is buying back stock). It could build a new refinery (fat chance of getting permits). It could add capacity at existing sites (yes, but probably only incremental capacity as to greatly increase production capacity at an existing site is problematic for various reasons).

MPC has taken approximately 57% of its outstanding shares off the market since the Speedway sale in 2021 via repurchases. Management appears to be logical and the other domestic players in the North American market similarly appear to be logical in running their companies for optimal profits instead of seeking to take market share from each other.

I welcome my fellow investors views.

Uwharrie