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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 3957 
Subject: Re: A KISS sales growth screen
Date: 08/03/2023 5:58 PM
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From 1997 to 2022, the OP screen had a 28% CAGR and -63% MDD. A gtr1 version {SG_PriceLow} had 19% CAGR and -83% MDD. (The CAGR range was 14 to 25 for the 21 different start dates). (The gtr1 version does not use VL data, and that might account for the different results.)

The OP screen looks for very high Sales Growth, and then does a final sort using (Price / Low Price). The final sort looks for stocks far above their recent low price. Recent high price is not used.

An alternative screen {SG_HighToLow} looks for stocks highest in the range 52-week High Price to 52-week Low Price. This finds stocks near the High Price and far from the Low Price. High [HtoL] where:

LP = [Lowest Price over 252 days]
HP = [Highest Price over 252 days]
[HtoL] = (P - LP) / (HP - LP)

[HtoL] is 1 when P=HP
[HtoL] is 0 when P=LP

{SG_PriceLow} and {SG_HighToLow} had similar CAGR, but {SG_HighToLow} has lower GSD and MDD.

        Screen         CAGR  SAWR  GSD  MDD  Sharpe  AT    From       To     SDcg
SalesGrowth_PriceLow 18.8 8.1 41 -83 0.62 4 19961231 20221230 2.7
SalesGrowth_HighToLow 18.6 10.8 30 -60 0.72 5 19961231 20221230 1.1

SP500MktCapWeight 8.6 5.0 19 -55 0.46 0 19961231 20221230 0.0
SP500EqualWeight 10.2 7.7 21 -60 0.52 0 19961231 20221230 0.1
SP1500EqualWeight 10.6 8.2 24 -60 0.50 0 19961231 20221230 0.2


          return       return         return       return   return     win          win             win         win
Year OP_Screen {SG_PriceLow} {SG_HighToLow} SP1500ew S&P OP_Screen {SG_PriceLow} {SG_HighToLow} SP1500ew
1997 31 -6 -1 27 28 1 0 0 0
1998 86 49 67 6 35 1 1 1 0
1999 173 171 138 11 18 1 1 1 0
2000 19 12 -4 14 -11 1 1 1 1
2001 7 -30 -4 10 -8 1 0 1 1
2002 -46 -53 -22 -15 -19 0 0 0 1
2003 155 78 43 44 23 1 1 1 1
2004 32 25 28 19 9 1 1 1 1
2005 14 16 23 8 8 1 1 1 1
2006 28 19 19 16 14 1 1 1 1
2007 -2 45 48 -1 2 0 1 1 0
2008 -30 -30 -13 -36 -33 1 1 1 0
2009 144 68 40 46 26 1 1 1 1
2010 26 46 26 26 14 1 1 1 1
2011 -1 30 9 -1 3 0 1 1 0
2012 -4 32 45 18 17 0 1 1 1
2013 107 79 56 39 28 1 1 1 1
2014 24 19 27 9 13 1 1 1 0
2015 10 -5 -7 -5 2 1 0 0 0
2016 28 -16 -7 24 14 1 0 0 1
2017 37 63 42 14 22 1 1 1 0
2018 -8 -22 -18 -10 -4 0 0 0 0
2019 12 50 40 25 30 0 1 1 0
2020 127 92 45 14 17 1 1 1 0
2021 37 14 -4 31 31 1 0 0 1
2022 -11 -28 -17 -13 -19 1 0 1 1

avg 38 28 23 12 10 77% 69% 77% 54%
median 24 25 26 14 14
max 173 171 138 46 31
min -46 -53 -22 -36 -33
sd 58 48 35 19 17
cagr 28% 19% 19% 11% 8%


http://gtr1.net/2013/?~SalesGrowth_PriceLow:h21f0....
http://gtr1.net/2013/?~SalesGrowth_HighToLow:h21f0...
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