Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) |
Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 1166 
Subject: UI, ZTS, PRIM, SHAK, and FSLY
Date: 05/26/26 12:46 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 7
I am getting warmed up in anticipation of more falling knives ahead. My screen today was

% Below 52 Week High: 36.00% to 100.00% (2411 matches)
Price Performance (4 Weeks): -100.00% to -30.00% (252 matches)

Out of the 252 matches, these were worth passing along. In order of market cap:

Ubiquiti (UI) up 10.4% in the last year, down 41% in the last month

Networking technology, market cap currently $37B and P/E 38

They traded flat around $575 until February, then went up to as much as $1100 in April. Traded at $1025 per share on May 6 before falling, near term bottom on May 19 at $585. Closed at $610 last week.

I want to note here that I'm using Gemini to summarize of the reason for the various drops. For UI, Q3 missed expectations (revenue $788M vs $814M consensus; non-GAAP EPS $3.88 vs 4.29 consensus)

Zoetis (ZTS) down 50% in the last year, down 30.4% in the last month.

Animal healthcare (2/3 companion an 1/3 livestock) spun out of Pfizer in 2013. Market cap currently $34B and P/E 13.

As high as $250 December 2021, they were at $112 May 6, near term bottom of $74 on May 15, and last closed at $81 last week.

They dropped their 2026 guidance from $9.68B-$9.96B to $9.825B-$10.025B, missed EPS guidance at $1.53 vs $1.62 consensus, and lost share to generics.

Primoris Services (PRIM) up 65% in the last year, down 31.5% in the last month.

Utilities and energy infrastructure services. Market cap of $6.4B and P/E 24.

Traded $50-75 for a while until April 2025. Ran up to just over $200 until May 5, near term bottom just below $100, and last closed at $117.55.

They missed on EPS $0.59 vs $0.85 consensus and revenue $1.56B vs. $1.73B consensus. They also guided down on EBITDA $480M–$500M guidance vs $569M consensus and adjusted EPS $4.80–$5.00 guidance v. $5.42–$5.63 consensus.

Shake Shack (SHAK) down 47% in the last year, down 39% in the last month.

Famous "fine-casual" burger restaurant. Market cap of $2.68B and P/E 64

Traded just over $140 last June, $96 on May 6, near term bottom around $60, and last closed at $62.71.

They missed on EPS $0.00 vs $0.11-$0.12 expected, revenue $366.7M vs $372M expected, and EBITDA $36.97M vs $45.64M forecast. Lots of the missed was apparently from a "Project Catalyst" technology revamp, weather, and store openings. Somewhat interesting. They have traded above this price 60% of the time in the last 8 years.

Fastly (FSLY) up 126% in the last year, down 31% in the last month.

Edge compute platform. Market cap of $2.55B and no earnings.

Peaked not long after their IPO, above $100 in February 2021. $8.25 in February, $35 in April, $20 also in April, $32.5 in May, and last closed at $16.32.

Sell the news situation, $170M–$176M guidance was flat from the prior quarter. Management sold substantial stock.

--------------------------------------------------------

I left some out because they were not real corrections (ERAS) or biopharma and I am not qualified to analyze pipelines. I also omitted FWRD because it's probably not bouncing back. I stopped around $100M market caps.

SHAK seemed the most interesting, the problems were transient and the business metrics were okay. I might open a small position. I'm curious what others think.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to ajm101 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 1,155 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
FKA: DG · 25 recs · 2023
MTD – A Masterclass in Un-Swiss Capital Allocation · 17 recs · 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) · 15 recs · 2026
Coloplast (CLPBY) · 12 recs · 2026
TSLA · 12 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (4) |


Announcements
Falling Knives FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of FK | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community