*                         11/6     11/13    11/20    11/27/23
S&P 500 Index             4358.34  4415.24  4514.02  4559.34
Trailing 12 month PE      22.49    23.20    23.74    23.92
Trail Earnings yield      4.45%    4.31%    4.21%    4.18%
Forward 12 month PE       19.79    20.43    20.88    21.04
Fwd Earnings Yield        5.05%    4.89%    4.79%    4.75%
90 day tbill yield        5.53     5.53     5.50     5.54
10 year tbond yield       4.57%    4.61%    4.44%    4.47%
Arezi Ratio               1.24     1.28     1.31     1.32
Fed Ratio                 0.90     0.94     0.93     0.94

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 54%
stocks, 46% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 34%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 80%.

Elan

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