Post #18237 by weatherman on the US Policy board

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there has been very little introspection by pollsters themselves since the trump win.
so given this, some propose a simpler approach :

- given the growth of 'independents' (some estimate <30% are actually unbiased), and ongoing futility of independent polls, simply go on how independents have voted since 2016.
- since registered dems outnumber registered GOP, trump would need nearly all of the GOP to turn out to vote for him, but the never-trump faction is ~25%

as before, the janky electoral college is a wildcard, as it can allow a winner with a record-setting unpopular margin.

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