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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: oddhack   😊 😞
Number: of 48434 
Subject: Preparing to go
Date: 03/14/2025 7:25 AM
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After 10 weeks - surprisingly fast - the Portuguese Embassy send notice that they had approved my long term visa this morning. With a cooperative veterinarian and USDA, and barring an embargo or hot war against the EU, I will be leaving for Lisbon in a month or so. The advice here has been quite helpful - thanks!

Considering how rapidly things are changing - and the truly massive uncertainties about the relationship of the US with, well, the entire world and most of its own citizens - I suspect I am going to be significantly reducing my holdings in Berkshire (80%+ of net worth ATM) prior to departure, and trying to move much of that into Euros in EU banks ASAP.

I don't doubt Berkshire is as well-positioned to survive a global financial crisis and trade war as any US company. But I do doubt that the US will come out of that scenario with anything like the economic clout it has had for my entire lifetime, and I strongly suspect there will be controls imposed over both human and asset movement outside the US at some point.

Ideally I am completely paranoid, and everyone can laugh at me in a few years. But while I don't actually need more compounded gains at this stage of my life, I do need more confidence in the future than I've had since the election.
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