All this is somewhat like arguments about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

What is the point -- with regard to investing -- about if we are in, or headed into, a recession?
People like to look for reasons the world is about to crash. Is that what this is? The thrill of predicting disaster?

It always brings me back to a couple of old quotes.
"Price is not the only reason we buy, but price is the only reason to sell."

and

"Aren’t you glad you are a trend follower? Leaving aside the potential performance advantages of trend following for a moment, it is just less drama. Case in point, as a trend follower you can avoid getting caught up in the endless debates about [things]."

The market is going up, so this is not the time to sell.


Back to the prospective recession debate:
"for the U.S. economy, the strongest historical recession indicator is Real Retail Sales Growth. Since the Census Bureau began to collect and publish it as a series in the late 1940s, it has expeditiously nailed every recession that has occurred, giving only a few false positives."
..
"Another accurate recession indicator is Industrial Production Growth. It’s available to a period much farther back in time–specifically, the year 1919. With the exception of a single costly omission in the 1974 recession, it’s done a very good job of accurately calling out recessions as they’ve happened."



"[Another] coincident recession indicator worth looking at is housing start growth"

FWIW, all three of these FRED indexes are up YOY.

Anecdotally, there are many new houses in my area that have gone up recently. My community is almost all custom(ish) homes. On the other end of my street, on the golf course side of the road, three years ago there were no houses. Last week I drove that way for the first time in a long time. I counted 8 houses that used to be empty lots and 2 more under construction.
Another area that I only drive by once a year or so I hit an area where a builder is putting up 25 tract homes.

My brother just moved to Texas. Into a new tract home division, all under new construction.

One of my sons just moved back East. They couldn't find an existing house that they liked for a price they liked, so they are buying a new home in a 100+ house new tract division. They expect to be breaking ground this month.