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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: musselmant 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: NDX 100 Momentum Strategy - Code Repository
Date: 04/11/26 6:49 PM
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using AI I am evaluating the previous-discussed 1,5, or 10 stock 1 year momentum, hold for a month, based on Nasdaq100 stocks strategy. I tested QQQ and SPY also, as well as getting out of the market when SPY<SMA325 (having determined with gtr that 300 to 350 was better than SMA200). Used .1% spreads. No taxes nor inflation considered.
Here is the result if by coincidence you started on the single worst starting date of the month when the data starts (Oct 1993, which then looks back to Oct 1992 to determine 1 year momentum):
Scenario	        Worst Start	Worst CAGR
NDX Mom 1 +325DMA 1993-10-14 31.0%
NDX Mom 1 1993-10-19 17.1%
NDX Mom 5 +325DMA 1993-10-29 21.5%
NDX Mom 5 1993-10-27 18.9%
NDX Mom 10 +325DMA 1993-10-21 18.2%
NDX Mom 10 1993-10-26 17.8%
QQQ +325DMA 1999-04-06 10.1%
SPY 1993-01-29 10.3%
QQQ 1999-03-29 9.7%
SPY +325DMA 1993-02-24 8.8%
The 1-stock strategy had a monster CAGR averaging 37.9% CAGR. It experienced 8 50% or worse drawdowns and still hit that number!
The strategies are very dependent on the big winners propelling them.
or NDX Mom 5, the top 1% of positions generated about 27.4% of total profits, and the top 5% generated about 84.3%.
For NDX Mom 10, the top 5% of positions generated about 90.9% of total profits.
Timing reduced that dependence somewhat:
NDX Mom 5 +325DMA top 5% of positions generated about 69.4% of profits.
NDX Mom 10 +325DMA top 5% generated about 74.5%.
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