Post #88 by tecmo on the Alphabet board

Stocks A to Z / Stocks G / Alphabet (GOOG)

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No. of Recommendations: 8

After earnings the stock is trading at around $140, which is kind of what I would have expected.

Reminder : All models are wrong; some are useful.

A Model:

Earnings $1.54   $1.90   $1.96    $2.09 
Revenue  $79B    $83B     $85B    $95B  


              TTM EPS   PE     TTM Rev  PS       Stock Range      
2024-Q1       $6.18     24x    $316B    6x       $142-$148        
2024-Q2       $6.64     24x    $325B    6x       $153-$161 
2024-Q3       $7.05     24x    $333B    6x       $163-$172
2024-Q4       $7.50     24x    $342B    6x       $166-$184

Both 24x and 6x are the average since 2020... The lowest PE was 19x, the highest was 32x. The lowest PS was 4.6x the highest was 8.1x - ranges could certainly be updated to reflect those extremes and you would get a "floor" of $153 / share and a ceiling of $240 / share.

Basically downside looks limited if your time horizon is at least a year out (anything could happen in the very short term). I would probably be a buyer if it got into the $130s

tecmo
...

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