No. of Recommendations: 8
After earnings the stock is trading at around $140, which is kind of what I would have expected.
Reminder : All models are wrong; some are useful.
A Model:
Earnings $1.54 $1.90 $1.96 $2.09
Revenue $79B $83B $85B $95B
TTM EPS PE TTM Rev PS Stock Range
2024-Q1 $6.18 24x $316B 6x $142-$148
2024-Q2 $6.64 24x $325B 6x $153-$161
2024-Q3 $7.05 24x $333B 6x $163-$172
2024-Q4 $7.50 24x $342B 6x $166-$184
Both 24x and 6x are the average since 2020... The lowest PE was 19x, the highest was 32x. The lowest PS was 4.6x the highest was 8.1x - ranges could certainly be updated to reflect those extremes and you would get a "floor" of $153 / share and a ceiling of $240 / share.
Basically downside looks limited if your time horizon is at least a year out (anything could happen in the very short term). I would probably be a buyer if it got into the $130s
tecmo
...
