At todays stock price of $112.25 how safe is the dividend?

I can't imagine them needing to cut the dividend. Why would they? It's a small fraction of earnings (even cyclically reduced earnings), and as you note, it would annoy a lot of shareholders.

The worries are mainly about how soon (if ever) things will look better on the serious questions affecting future net margins, like real labour costs as percent of revenue.

For stock price, it's probably all about how soon the year-on-year comps start looking good. I don't see any reason to expect a good return soon. But I also don't see much likelihood of a bad or average return over the next couple of years. Sometimes it's remarkably easy to beat the average investor (who works at a desk at a fund manager), since they never look more than a year out. That's why "sell" recommendations get more common as a stock gets cheaper, even though it should be the reverse, per the hamburger rule!

Jim

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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