*                         7/3      7/10     7/17     7/24/23
S&P 500 Index             4450.38  4398.95  4505.42  4536.34
Trailing 12 month PE      24.72    24.39    25.17    25.17
Trail Earnings yield      4.05%    4.10%    3.97%    3.97%
Forward 12 month PE       21.03    20.87    21.70    21.68
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.76%    4.79%    4.61%    4.61%
90 day tbill yield        5.43     5.46     5.49     5.50
10 year tbond yield       3.81%    4.06%    3.83%    3.84%
Arezi Ratio               1.34     1.33     1.38     1.38
Fed Ratio                 0.80     0.85     0.83     0.83

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 51%
stocks, 49% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 21%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 68%.

Elan

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