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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21941 
Subject: Re: OT short TSLA, long BABA
Date: 07/10/23 6:59 PM
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It might work.
The problem is that you have to buy enough time for the thesis to work out, which might take many years.
Even if you can find options that long dated, they might cost so much that the rate of return isn't that great...especially when weighted by the risk of failure.

Unfortunately, as I've learned, you can be absolutely right about an investment insight but still find that it isn't really worth doing ; )

The secret to this approach, I think, is very small positions with very high payouts, no matter how remote the possibility of payout.
Lottery tickets are a bad return on average, but the entry cost is very low and the payoff is very large, so it is almost rational to put a tiny fraction of your portfolio in them.
"Heads I win, tails I don't lose much" is arguably a useful bet even with terrible chances of a win, provided the loss is small enough to take in stride.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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