Re: probability of Soviet invasion of Japan in 1995

(Also from the net sifter)

OK, you've veered off. I showed you that the Japanese feared a Russian invasion. The probability of an actual invasion is a nonsequitor, because we know why they made the decision to surrender to us, and the fear of the Russians invading was not a minor factor. The Japanese had no oil, no navy, and couldn't defend themselves if the Russians invaded. They saw the Bolsheviks as not going to accept an Emperor and they would destroy Japanese culture. Now, how do we know this? Because we took all their records, the General's diaries. etc., we know what they discussed.

Whether or not the Russians actually could invade means nothing, that the Japanese were very afraid of the Russians invading means something. Now Steve used it as an example of bombing being successful and causing a regime change without boots on the ground. But the Japanese figured that if they surrendered to us, they could keep their Emperor and their culture, and they were right.