some here may recall the moment they realized some investors became aware of covid and its macro impact...a few months before in 2019.

are we destined for a similar setup regarding iran ?

professional traders have clustered short-term, and their career may not survive missing a weekly trump spike up. but the reality appears quite different.
on a factual basis, IEA states the iran war has removed more supply than the last 3 energy\economic crises combined.
being in the semi-paralysis camp, i find some appreciation from an energy expert regarding his own domain, much less the global economy :

"...the sheer incoherence of US policy is paralysing price formation.
War fatigue is setting in. More specifically, TACO fatigue: the exhaustion of trying to extract signal from an endlessly contradictory stream of pronouncements, Truth Social posts, and deadlines that melt into irrelevance as soon as they are uttered...
the result is a market caught in a bizarre holding pattern: funds are building record long [energy] positions because the physical fundamentals demand it, but prices refuse to follow because nobody can model the trajectory of a conflict whose architect cannot articulate its own endgame."
energyflux