No. of Recommendations: 0
Well, the "kids" made 80% this year. They might have made the mistake of allowing too much new money. New money adds pressure for new gains. Old money can rest on previous gains. The goal of no monthly losses seems odd, and perhaps unachievable.
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Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness seeks to raise capital after AI rout
Published Wednesday July 29 2026
Financial Times: Content 280336bf dbed 405f b38e 5af644a21549"Here is the full letter Leopold Aschenbrenner sent to Situational Awareness LPs on Thursday night. The AI-focused hedge fund is still up 80% YTD despite a 67% drawdown this month"
X (Twitter): Exec Sum on X: "Here is the full letter Leopold Aschenbrenner sent to Situational Awareness LPs on Thursday night The AI-focused hedge fund is still up 80% YTD"The portfolio value of Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, fell 67% in July after suffering steep losses on AI stocks, according to a letter sent to investors on Thursday that was seen by Reuters... Still, its gains for the year were so staggering that the fund continues to be up 80% in 2026, the letter showed..."
reuters.com - Situational awareness portfolio sinks july AI stock rout letter showsbehind a paywall, but available with a free Alphaville subscription:
Alphaville Technology sector
Quant trading ≠ software company
Software scales, but alpha decays
by Sinead O’Sullivan, Published July 28 2026
"... It’s called the Kelly Criterion, and it says the size of your wager should be set by the size of your edge ... The late Jim Simons delivered this as a masterclass. His hedge fund Renaissance Technologies “discovered” — he was a mathematician, after all — that the correct amount of assets under management for its fabled Medallion fund was about $10bn, roughly one fifteen-thousandth of the global equity market. And despite investors being desperate for a piece of the Medallion pie, it has been capped around there for two decades ... A quant fund is not a tech company, and a tech company is not a quant fund. One is priced on what compounds, while the other lives and dies by the alpha that gets depleted away. Investors should be careful about confusing the two."
Financial Times: Content 8ed46f5f 0d52 46a8 a38d 642f5a828491