Google/Alphabet Revenue per share has compounded on a trendline with 23% CAGR for every year since it went public in 2004, so far. Its share price and earnings/share follow that 23% CAGR pretty closely.

So on the one hand, just because Google doubled in the last 3 years doesn't mean it will double in the NEXT 3 years. However, so far for 21 years google's doubling in the previous 3 years has always been followed by a doubling in the next 3 years. So expecting it to do SOMETHING like that is arguably the way to bet.

With 23% CAGR as its baseline, Google has a lot of room for hiccups and tripping over the new technology before it becomes a BAD investment. It could take a complete dump and turn in an unprecedentedly bad 12%/year for 3 years in a row, and still be a good investment.

By the way, the $80 billion Google seems to want to raise is 20% less than it spent buying back its own shares in 2023 + 2024. That $80 billion is about 9 months of its 2025 earnings.

So in perspective, I think it is fair to say Google would like to spend less than a year's earnings to kickstart its own AI position in this grand AI race that the hyperscalers are engaged in. Given their 24 record of doubling every three years, does that seem like an interesting bet to make? It seems to be interesting to Berkshire and to Greg.

Personally I have become an investor in Google in the last few months, in case that matters to how you read this.

R: