I'm expecting inflation to keep ticking up,

Me too. It's one of those great mysteries. Maybe it's just a matter of time lag? Or the financial universe trying to maximize its unpredictability.

I expect US inflation to tick upwards not only because of the direct effect of tariffs driving sticker prices up in the US, nor the effect of marginal shortages as shipments and stocks have been squeezed, but also simply from the recent fall in the US dollar.

The trade weighted dollar is down 11.7% year to date. Anything at a fixed price in shrinking dollars is that much cheaper than it was then, like US salaries, and anything at fixed prices in other currencies is that much more expensive measured in dollars like Hermes scarfs. Imagine if you actually told the average person in Peoria that they just had a 12% pay cut.

This might not last, of course, but for the moment that's not a trivial move. If it lasts, you'd expect inflation to shift upwards with a very long lag as the rising import prices cascade through the economy.

It's kind of funny that the world's financial press is in the habit of quoting and following the prices of securities in US dollars, ignoring that the dollar is one of the more volatile currencies out there. e.g., the drop of about 42% 2002-2008. I find it particularly amusing to see an occasional article about the price of gold or oil rising in a week, saying it's a common correlation when the US dollar falls. Duh...the gold didn't change price or purchasing power, the dollar did. (of course gold is even more extreme in its moves, I'm talking about specific instances of a lonely dollar drop)

Jim