But a counterview with plenty of reasons and data behind the logic of the position has been proposed. The sum total of which has been a lot more than "little reason" to we will be on the underside of the long term average rather than the upperside of the long term average over the next ten years. Any reasoning to think we are in for a period of achieving the long term average rather than substantial underperformance?


Basically, the future is unknown and REALLY hard to predict.
“It is thus because it has always been thus” - Jack Vance

"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." — Niels Bohr

"The smarter someone is the more plausible a story they can come up with."

“the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions” - Paul Samuelson

"True bear markets start slowly giving many months to get out. It does not make sense to try to sell now before any indicator is triggered..." -- Newfound Research

"I don't need to know what's going to happen next. I just need to know what I'll do in response to whatever does happen." -- Jim Rogers

Also: "The smarter someone is the more plausible a story they can come up with."

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Any reasoning to think we are in for a period of achieving the long term average rather than substantial underperformance?

Okay, what can you do about it? If we do have a length time of substantial underperformance, what can anybody do about it? It is what it is, and we just have to take what comes. There is NOTHING that you or I or any of us can do to take anything other than the market gives us. Doesn't matter if we don't like it. All we can do is try to shift our strategies around to try to sit out the storm. But there is no reason to run and hide now, before this period of substantial underperformance comes into existance. After all, it might NOT happen. It might be that the current OUTperformance just deflates and thing go back to normal.

So, it's easy enough to have your plans in place, ready to go when/if the storm comes. It won't take too long to sell everything and go to cash, if that's your plan. Even if you had 100 stock holdings you could sell it all in an hour or two. But, since bear markets start slowly, you don't have to sell that rapidly.