No. of Recommendations: 23
It's not an unfair summary of a comment I made.
But the lesson from it that I intended by the observation was: don't try to call the top. It's hard, and there is no hurry, so don't try. Tops tend to be rounded (though jagged), not spikey, if you know what I mean. So one can usually (this is a statistical thing) just wait till there has been no new high for 3-5 months and THEN sell, without having given up much. It is exceedingly rare to see a drop in prices shortly after a recent market high that is both meaningful and lasting. (if a bull market has been the norm lately, people have been conditioned to buy every dip, so any big dip shortly after a recent top tends to see a strong rebound--1987, 2020, whatever)
Right now we seem to be in an ongoing bull market, whether it makes sense or not. The broad US market hit a fresh recent high only 11 trading days ago. Consequently I don't expect a bear market to be imminent, despite nosebleed valuations in so many places. (again, speaking statistically: anything can happen with prices, but it seems unlikely)
Comments above relate to the broad US market, not individual equities around the world. And of course the comments have nothing to do with valuation levels. Different games, different rules of thumb.
Jim
